Amazon Testing Search Retargeting Across the Web

Amazon is testing a new service that lets advertisers leverage users’ Amazon search data to retarget them on third-party websites through Amazon DSP, Adexchanger reports. It’s the first time we’ve seen Amazon use its proprietary search data to grow advertising revenue generated on non-Amazon-owned properties.

Search data is interesting because it is a strong signal for current purchase intent. As Amazon’s share of first-stop shopping searches grows, search retargeting will create another front on which Amazon can compete with Google for search advertising spend.

While the test is still limited in that advertisers can’t apply black lists, thus leading some agencies to hold off for now due to brand safety reasons, adding search data to the mix appears to be the next step in Amazon DSP’s evolving retargeting capabilities. Amazon already allows advertisers to retarget based on views of product detail pages.

Amazon’s advertising business hit an approximate $10 billion run rate in the third quarter of 2018. Investing in new ad products and applying its site search data to new advertising functionality shows that Amazon foresees advertising revenue growth opportunities on multiple fronts in the coming year.

New Twitch Extensions Allow Shopping While Streaming

Amazon held its TwitchCon annual conference for streamers and fans last week in San Jose. During the week several new Twitch Extensions were announced, including Snap Camera by Snap, Character Trigger by Adobe, Tiltify Donations, Twitch Arcade by Amazon Game Studios, and Amazon Blacksmith by Amazon.

One interesting extension that could catch the eye of both streamers and retailers alike is a new merch store extension that allows shopping while streaming. The extension is created by Design by Humans and FaZe Clan launched the first store. Here’s how it looks:

“Before today, fans had to open up new tabs to snag their favorite hoodies and jerseys. Now, viewers can shop as they watch creators win chicken dinners,” Robbie Lim of Amazon writes.

“By building an Extension, we were able to embed a full ecommerce experience, from product discovery to checkout, all while keeping our fans where they wanted to be in the first place — watching livestreams on Twitch,” said Ben Sack, CTO of FaZe Clan.

Here’s the extension listing for streamers:

It reads, “Sell FaZe Clan merchandise and products from your Twitch channel. Your viewers see an embedded widget where they can browse, add to cart, and make purchases without leaving Twitch. Best of all, you earn commissions on all sales generated by your channel. #FaZeUp”

In-stream merchandising is an interesting opportunity for streamers and brands alike. We’ll be tracking this space.

“More brands are coming soon!” Amazon says.

Amazon Advertising Revenue Grows to Nearly $10 Billion Annual Run Rate

Amazon just reported its third quarter financial results.

One interesting data point: Amazon’s advertising revenue was up to about $2.495 billion. (Amazon does not give exact numbers for advertising revenue; see notes below.) On an annualized basis, that’s approximately a $10 billion business.

The fourth quarter is generally expected to show the strongest growth of the year. We’ll continue tracking Amazon’s advertising results.

Notes on Amazon’s reporting as it relates to advertising revenue:

  • In 2017 filings, Amazon’s footnote on “Other” revenue said: “Includes sales not otherwise included above, such as certain advertising services and our co-branded credit card agreements.”
  • In 2018 filings, Amazon’s footnote on “Other” revenue said: “Primarily includes sales of advertising services, as well as sales related to our other service offerings.”
  • Starting in 2018, Amazon said it made an accounting methodology change that resulted in an increase in “Other” revenue of $560M in Q1 2018: “Service sales also increased by approximately $560 million due to the reclassification of certain advertising services that were previously classified as a reduction of cost of sales.”

Top Grossing Alexa Skills? Why the Independent Alexa Game Developer Market is Still Nascent.

Over the last decade, we’ve seen the rapid rise (and partial fall) of new platforms for apps and games monetizing via various freemium models.

Starting in 2007 was Facebook, which offered unprecedented distribution opportunities, followed by powerful monetization functionality, but which struggled in the long run to align incentives between itself, developers, and users. Then came iOS and Android, which, while somewhat limited in terms of viral distribution channels, have managed to build stable ecosystems over time on which mobile game and app developers have built sustainable businesses.

Where do Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Microsoft Cortana, and other voice app platforms fit into the picture? Where do the biggest opportunities lie for developers who want to build businesses on Alexa monetizing through freemium models? We’ve been searching for evidence of a large, healthy independent skill developer market. But at the end of the day, we believe the market just isn’t quite there yet. Here’s what we’re seeing.

Platform Dynamics: Alexa Skill Discovery, Customer Acquisition, and User Retention

Probably the largest hurdle for developers who want to build a business monetizing Alexa Skills is the cost of customer acquisition. Because the predominant method of skill “installation” is user-initiated voice invocation, discovery is a massive challenge.

For the most part, this “marketing” work must somehow be done previous to the user’s Alexa session (and outside of Amazon platforms altogether). We have yet to find evidence that Amazon is driving substantial traffic to the Alexa Skill Store. Amazon’s official “Tips on Promoting Your Alexa Skill” advice includes such tactics as: “Send an Email to Your Network,” “Feature Your Skill on Your Website,” and “Promote Your Skill on Social Media.” In other words: figure it out yourself, somewhere else!

Following a pattern used by app developers of recent platforms past, Alpine.ai (formerly VoiceLabs) created an innovative third party ad network for Alexa Skills to cross promote each other. However, Amazon shut it down last year with a policy change that prohibited Skills containing “any advertising for third-party products or services” (more on Alpine.ai later). Other early Alexa ad networks have also shut down. Amazon does allow in-skill advertising in limited circumstances, but essentially prohibits advertising with voice interaction. However, paying your way to widespread adoption is seemingly not very feasible right now.

Amazon earlier this year did launch a new discovery channel called CanFulfillIntent. Essentially, when a skill supports this capability, it is eligible to be selected by Alexa to fulfill requests made by users that do not invoke a specific Skill. For example, if a user asks, “What are the best hikes near Denver?” Alexa may choose a skill it believes can fulfill that request without the user knowing the name of that skill or how to invoke it. This is an interesting and potentially significant new distribution channel, but it is still in beta and we have yet to find developers talking about it making a big difference. (If you have success stories to tell, please let us know.)

Amazon is also experimenting with Alexa-initiated game recommendations after users conclude skill sessions. (Developers are also promoting their own skills, but it’s hard to track the effectiveness of this approach.) We are curious to see what other experiments Amazon tries along the lines of in-session platform-instigated promotions.

Perhaps the most glaring absence from all this is the lack of any user-initiated viral distribution channels for skills. On Facebook, users could invite their friends to play games together using Facebook’s native invitation and notification channels. On mobile, users could at least jump through some hoops to invite their friends via email or SMS. Alexa does not offer any built-in “viral” channels like this, severely limiting organic user acquisition opportunities for developers.

When it comes to user retention, the same challenges essentially apply. Users must invoke skills themselves, and Amazon does not currently provide for developer-to-user notifications in any generally available way. However, Amazon is testing Notifications for Alexa Skills in “Developer Preview,” but it has been nearly a year since the initial announcement was made. Notifications have not yet launched to general availability, though an Amazon staffer said as recently as a few weeks ago that, “The Notifications Team is hard at work on this feature, and is no longer onboarding new developers to this developer preview.”

However, it should be noted that if and when this feature launches generally, skill notifications will still be opt-in on a per-skill basis (i.e. default off) and must be turned on by users in Alexa settings:

Customers opt in to notifications per skill using the Amazon Alexa app. After opting in to notifications on a given skill, the customer is alerted when there is new information to retrieve—with both a sound and an on-device indicator (LED or on-screen equivalent) on their Amazon Echo, Echo Dot, Echo Show, or their Alexa-enabled third party device. The customer can simply ask, “Alexa, what did I miss?”, or “Alexa, read my notifications,” and Alexa will read the new notifications. Users must opt in before a skill can send them notifications, and can disable or suppress notifications using the Alexa app or by putting devices in Do Not Disturb mode.

Some Skills that are participating in the Alexa notifications test include AccuWeather (severe weather updates), Kayak (flight status), Twitch (when streamers you follow are live), Domino’s, and the Washington Post.

We are also curious to see if and how Amazon experiments with the UX/UI around Alexa notifications. This is a crucial challenge for building a sustainable communication channel. It is non-trivial to balance the pros and cons for the various parties involved (users, developers, and Amazon) in the short and long term.

The bottom line? Alexa offers very limited built-in distribution opportunities for independent skill developers. Unless developers have other channels to cross-promote their Alexa Skills, or users are inspired to promote Skills to their friends and followers, growth on Alexa is challenging.

Platform Dynamics: Alexa Skill Monetization

Distribution aside, what are the dynamics like for developers who want to monetize their skills? Thankfully, opportunities supported by the platform for the monetization of Alexa Skills are more robust that those for customer acquisition. Here’s a look at the strategies Amazon currently supports.

1. Alexa Developer Rewards – This was the first and is still the most obfuscated method of monetizing apps. Essentially, Amazon sends checks to developers of skills in certain categories “that drive some of the highest customer engagement.” Amazon does not disclose how it calculates these amounts, how much it sends out altogether, or how many recipients it selects. Sometimes, Amazon Developer Rewards take the form of AWS credits instead of money. Anecdotal evidence illustrates that some developers have received a few thousand dollars per month, while others receive on the order of $100 per month. However, because the reward calculation algorithm is undisclosed and the track record of this program so variable and spotty, it’s not sufficient to base a business strategy on.

2. In-Skill Purchasing – While not available when Alexa Skills first launched, Amazon has fleshed out its In-Skill Purchasing functionality over the last year and a half to enable skill developers to monetize their most engaged users through the purchase of content, digital items, and experiences.  In our view, ISP offers the most incentive-aligned way for developers to build sustainable skill monetization models over time. Currently, there are 3 main ISP options developers can choose from: subscriptions, one-time purchases, and consumables.

  • Subscriptions – subscriptions offer developers the opportunity to monetize through charging for access to premium content or features. Users pay on a recurring basis until they cancel. This functionality became generally available in May 2018.
  • One-Time Purchases – also called “entitlements”, one-time purchases offer developers the opportunity to monetize through charging user to unlock certain features or content, such as expansion packs. Users pay once and the purchases never expire. This functionality also became generally available in May 2018.
  • Consumables – fundamental to the monetization of games through the freemium model, Amazon launched consumable virtual goods in September 2018. These are items that can be purchased, depleted, and then purchased again. For example, tools, premium items, or virtual currency. It’s only been a few weeks since this went live for all developers, but it’s a major milestone in the maturation of the platform.

3. Amazon Pay for Merchandise – The third and perhaps least-known skill monetization strategy for Alexa Skills is using Amazon Pay to sell merchandise (available to US-based developers). Developers who register for Amazon Pay and integrate it into their skill. Typically, this involves selling your own items and users linking to their account with your service elsewhere. It’s also a capability Amazon made generally available in May 2018.

The bottom line? Amazon has fleshed out its monetization APIs substantially since the Alexa Skill platform launched. If skill developers are able to attract users – which is no simple task – Amazon now provides the core functionality needed to convert users into paying customers. It’s still early, and Amazon is still likely to update the rules and policies governing appropriate user experiences around monetization, but developers now have somewhere to start.

Where Are the Big Developers and Top Grossing Games?

The market for independent developers hoping to build a big business through Alexa skills and games appears to still be relatively nascent. Amazon has rolled out more monetization features and functionality recently, but discovery channels are still extremely limited. It is likely still hard for most game developers to justify the customer acquisition costs needed to drive substantial traffic to Alexa games compared to the opportunities developers have on other types of platforms, despite the relatively low saturation of the voice app market.

Nevertheless, there have been sporadic breakouts. For example, Volley currently owns two of the most voluminously-reviewed Alexa games (Song Quiz and Yes Sire) and acquired the apps of solo developer David Markey that had gained popularity. Founded in 2013 by Harvard roommates Max Child and James Wilsterman, Volley used to build bot games for Facebook Messenger, is a member of Y Combinator’s Winter 2018 class, and raised a seed round earlier this year.

Amazon lists The Magic Door game as one of its Top Alexa Skills. Labworks out of the UK has made some games that gained some traction, as has Voice GamesSensible Object’s Alexa-integrated board game has gained some favorable reviews, but not a ton. However, many of these developers and others are also still building non-game skills, such as ambient sound apps, and it’s unclear how well their skills have ultimately monetized.

Large game developers like Ubisoft have published skills like Assassin’s Creed Odyssey Spartan to accompany their popular games. Bungie’s Destiny 2 Ghost is a companion skill to the game as well. Bethesda published Skyrim Very Special Edition earlier this year, making it into a real game after it started out as a joke.

Amazon does not make available top grossing or fastest growing charts, and it does not publicly publish MAU or DAU numbers. Were Amazon to make more skill-specific performance data public a la recent platform predecessors, it would lead to faster iteration of ecosystem evolution (for both best and worst practices). To date, Amazon has chosen not to go this route.

Organizational efforts amongst the Alexa developer community is still largely Amazon-driven. Amazon is running Alexa Dev Days around the world, but monetizing voice apps has seemingly not garnered a ton of attention at game or developer conferences.  The Alexa Conference, which is sponsored by Amazon and organized by VoiceFirst.fm, is scheduled to be held in January in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The agenda for the upcoming AWS re:Invent conference shows one session on Alexa Skill monetization.

The analytics ecosystem around voice app monetization is also awaiting breakout leaders. The product, team, and technology behind Alpine.ai, which had its Alexa app ad network shut down last year, were acquired last month by meditation app Headspace. Dashbot has built a powerful solution, PullString and BotAnalytics have built products for optimizing automated agents, and Adobe has a voice analytics service for brands.

Many Skill developers, even those Amazon has featured on its developer blogs, have gone the agency route. For example, Stoked Skills has developed two dozen skills and is available for hire. XAPPmedia says it’s built over 1,000 voice apps for brands. 169Labs in Germany was an early skill developer and is now building skills for others as well. VoiceApps makes tools for developers to roll out templated skills, as do Storyline and Smartly.ai. Consulting firms like VUI.agency help brands make skills, along with other VUX/VUI consulting shops. Blutag helps stores sell more through voice apps.

At the end of the day, the Alexa Skill ecosystem overall is currently more easily accessible to developers who want to make Alexa Skills that extend their (or their clients’) existing products or services, rather than function as standalone apps. For example, within games, the Jeopardy Alexa skill by Sony Pictures Television leverages the brand’s existing IP and promotional channels. Outside of games, there are whole swaths of smart home skills, news briefing skills, “lifestyle” skills, and more. Nevertheless, there are still opportunities for innovative developers to discover uncharted country and to put themselves in position as experienced early adopters as the ecosystem matures.

Amazon now says that over 50,000 skills have been developed worldwide, and that there are over 20,000 Alexa-compatible smart home devices. Earlier this year, Amazon brought Alexa to PCs as well as to Alexa mobile apps themselves (previously the mobile apps just performed administrative functions), increasing the number of access points. The number of Amazon Echos and Google Homes and their variants going into homes, buildings, and cars only continues to grow. Hardware form factors and strategies are continuing to evolve, opening up new use cases for developers.

But for now, the independent Alexa game developer market is still quite nascent. We’ll continue tracking its development.

A Look at Amazon’s Growing Advertising Sales in India, China, and Across Asia

Amazon’s growing advertising business has raised a lot of eyebrows this year. The company said* it did about $2 billion in advertising revenue in the second quarter of 2018, and that number is generally expected to grow healthily as we approach the holiday season. Ad loads on Amazon search results pages appear very healthy, and Amazon has been attempting to make it easier for advertisers and agencies big and small to spend money on Amazon’s variety of advertising products by simplifying its advertising product branding.

We haven’t heard as much about Amazon’s advertising sales efforts in Asia, but we’re starting to. According to a report by India’s Factor Daily, Amazon ad sales in India are approaching $100 million (we assume this means annual run rate).

Online retailer Amazon has quietly built itself a high margin digital advertising business in India which is closing in on revenues of nearly $100 million, about 5% of money spent online by brands in India… “Amazon doesn’t have its own ad network and agencies don’t yet understand how to use advertising on an e-commerce platform,” said an Amazon executive who did not wish to be named as he is not authorised to speak to the press… Nearly 90% of Amazon’s advertising business in India currently comes from the programmatic and direct sales route.

Amazon is one of the most widely visited web services in India. According to Alexa.com (Amazon’s original and now lesser-known “Alexa” service, which tracks web traffic stats), Amazon.in is the fourth-biggest site in the country.

Ad loads on Amazon.in for popular queries are on par with those in the US. As one example, here are search results pages for “polo shirt” in India and the US, respectively (side note, Amazon private label brands are prominent in both search results as well):

Sponsored results for “polo shirt” on Amazon.in:

Sponsored results for “polo shirt” on Amazon.com:

Amazon continues to hire advertising support staff in Bangalore and Chennai, including those supporting advertisers in other parts of the world, such as Italy and China.

We’ve heard even less about Amazon’s advertising sales efforts in China, Japan, Singapore, and the rest of Asia. Anecdotally, ad loads for “polo 衫” on Amazon.cn show decent ad loads. But perhaps more telling of where Amazon hopes to go with its Chinese advertising efforts is Amazon’s current plans to ramp up its advertising sales staff in the country targeting Chinese advertisers.

Per Amazon.jobs, Amazon is hiring 18 advertising account executives and onboarding specialists out of its Shanghai and Shenzhen offices. These positions reflect the growing number of Chinese brands that Amazon is targeting to bring onto its platform – to reach customers both in China and around the world. Amazon is looking for people with, “Experience working with China-based brands.” As the listings state:

The Amazon Advertising team helps CN-based advertisers to reach Amazon customers globally: on Amazon, across our other owned and operated properties, on other high-quality destinations across the internet, and on millions of Kindles, tablets, and mobile devices.

In addition, Amazon’s onboarding specialsts are focused on helping Amazon’s self-serve/CPC advertising customers ramp up their efforts:

Sponsored Products and Sponsored Brands are cost-per-click (CPC) self-serve ad programs in the Amazon Advertising world. In support to the Amazon Advertising’s business, we at Ad Success Team (AST) are building a group of energetic and highly motivated Associate Onboarding Specialists. As an Associate Onboarding Specialist, you will be responsible to help equip them to identify the Advertising business opportunity, review their product listings, create advertising campaigns and help them adopt high value actions on their account to influence their success in advertising.

In Meguro, Amazon Japan is staffing up its ad sales efforts as well, including Head of Vertical Sales for Amazon Media Group, Manager of Campaign & Creative Management, and several Account Executives. Amazon is staffing Japanese advertising onboarding specialists out of Shanghai as well.

Meanwhile, Amazon is continuing to hire ad sales staff in the US (primarily in New York) and Europe (primarily in London, Paris, and Munich), managing accounts, self-serve advertisers, and continuing to build Amazon’s DSP operation.

* Notes on chart above and Amazon’s filings:

  • In 2017 filings, Amazon’s footnote on “Other” revenue said: “Includes sales not otherwise included above, such as certain advertising services and our co-branded credit card agreements.”
  • In 2018 filings, Amazon’s footnote on “Other” revenue said: “Primarily includes sales of advertising services, as well as sales related to our other service offerings.”
  • Starting in 2018, Amazon said it made an accounting methodology change that resulted in an increase in “Other” revenue of $560M in Q1 2018: “Service sales also increased by approximately $560 million due to the reclassification of certain advertising services that were previously classified as a reduction of cost of sales.”

Follow TJI as Amazon continues to evolve its advertising products and the way it works with advertisers and agencies around the world.

Amazon Issued Patent for Alexa Technology to Determine Demographics, Emotional Status, and Health Conditions from a User’s Voice (and Offer Targeted Ads)

Amazon has been issued a patent on an Alexa technology that has the ability to determine certain physical and emotional characteristics of users based on their voice input, and offer help – sometimes in the form of offers for items for sale. While the patent doesn’t mean Amazon plans to launch products with this technology, it does reflect Amazon’s thinking on Alexa’s potential.

The patent, titled “Voice-based determination of physical and emotional characteristics of users,” is number 10,096,319. The patent covers Alexa’s ability to infer certain traits about Alexa users from their voice when determining how to respond:

Traits may include physical characteristics of a user (e.g., gender, age, ethnic origin, etc.), a physical condition or state of a user (e.g., sore throat, sickness, etc.), an emotional condition or state of a user (e.g., happy, sad, tired, sleepy, excited, etc.), and other traits.

Amazon provides an illustration in the application showing what it intends to cover. In the illustration, a woman is shown to be coughing and sniffling and tells Alexa she’s hungry. The Alexa system is able to determine her “abnormal physical or emotional condition,” and asks if she would like a chicken soup recipe, which she declines. At that point, Alexa takes the initiative to offer her another remedy and says, “By the way, would you like to order cough drops with 1 hour delivery?” When the woman accepts Alexa’s offer, Alexa confirms and concludes by saying, “Feel better!”

Digging deeper into the patent reveals some interesting details. Here are some highlights based on our reading of the patent:

1. Amazon has patented the technology to determine demographic characteristics of users from their voice — including gender, age, and ethnic origin:

For example, voice features may include a gender of the user, an age or age range of the user, an ethnic origin or language accent of the user, an emotion of the user, a background noise of the environment in which the user is located, and other voice features. As a result, content presented at a device may be specific to the user that is using the device (e.g., providing a voice input, etc.), as opposed to a user associated with the device, such as an owner of the device.

2. Amazon has patented the technology to determine physical characteristics of users from their voice — including certain health conditions:

In another example, a second voice processing or signal processing algorithm may be used to process or analyze the voice data to determine a health condition or status of the user. Detectable or determinable health conditions may include, among others, default or normal, sore throat, cold, thyroid issues, sleepiness, and other health conditions. Example algorithms may analyze breath sounds of the user based at least in part on the voice data and may use a cepstral feature set using SVMs and/or neural networks.

3. Amazon has patented the technology to determine emotional status of users from their voice — including joy, fear, and stress:

The first voice processing algorithm may be used to determine an emotional state of the user. Detectable or determinable emotions may include, among others, default or normal, happiness, joy, anger, sorrow, sadness, fear, disgust, boredom, stress, and other emotional states. Emotional states or conditions may be determined based at least in part on an analysis of pitch, pulse, voicing, jittering, and/or harmonicity of a user’s voice, as determined from processing of the voice data…

If it is determined that the user has an abnormal emotional state, the device or a connected computer may select a real-time emotional state of the user. The real-time emotional state of the user may be, for example, at least one of the happiness, joy, anger, sorrow, sadness, fear, disgust, boredom, stress, or other emotional states.

4. Amazon has patented the technology to target ads to users based on what it determines is their current physical and/or emotional condition:

A current physical and/or emotional condition of the user may facilitate the ability to provide highly targeted audio content, such as audio advertisements or promotions, to the user… For example, certain content, such as content related to cough drops or flu medicine, may be targeted towards users who have sore throats… In the example of FIG. 1, the cough drops manufacturer may have targeted users with sore throats for the promotional offer that was presented to the user 130. The targeting criteria for the promotional offer, or the offer generally, may include users with sore throats or users likely to have sore throats…

Audio content targeted to sleepy and bored users may be determined based at least in part on a data tag that identifies the voice data as a sleepy and bored user. For example, a musician may want to target an audio ad for his new album to users with “boredom” and “sleepy” conditions. Audio content for presentation may be selected from the candidate content and presented to the user. For example, the voice interaction device may audibly present “here’s a joke [ . . . ] By the way, this singer just released his new album for just $1.99. Do you want to preview it?” The user may respond affirmatively or negatively as desired.

Again, technology companies file patents often and do not end up launching products with the patented technology. However, the fact that Amazon filed this patent reflects the potential use cases Amazon sees in Alexa’s future.

In our view, these patented technologies raise some important ethical and philosophical questions that Amazon will likely need to take a clear stance on if it intends to launch products including these features. For example, what bounds should be placed on advertising based on these factors? In which scenarios is taking these factors into account at all when determining a response unethical? Would Amazon ever make such data available to Skill developers through Alexa APIs? What are the privacy implications of these systems knowing what a user’s home life is like?

At the same time, these technologies reflect the potential for “smart assistants” like Alexa to become much more emotionally intelligent and empathetic, creating better user experiences. For example, if Alexa could determine a user was in a happy mood when asking Alexa to “play music,” Alexa could automatically infer the user’s emotional state when choosing which songs to play.

Voice interfaces create opportunities for ambient computing to become deeply integrated in our physical spaces, and this patent addresses some important aspects of what that could mean for the future of human-computer interaction and commerce.

Follow TJI as we continue to track the development of the Alexa ecosystem and what it means for hardware developers, software developers, and customers.

Estimate: Amazon to Become 3rd Largest US Internet Advertising Platform in 2018

New estimates published yesterday peg Amazon at claiming 4.1% of the overall US internet advertising market, passing Oath and Microsoft. eMarketer estimates Amazon’s total ad revenue for the year at USD $4.61 billion. It estimates Google at 37.1% and Facebook at 20.6%.

Our take:

  • Facebook sits higher in the advertising funnel than Google, and Google sits higher in the advertising funnel than Amazon. As Amazon increases the sophistication of its ad offerings, which it has done significantly in the last couple of years, Amazon should be able to grow its ad revenue by double digit percentages annually just by fleshing out queries related to purchase intent.
  • Amazon poses a more direct threat to Google than Facebook in the near term for two reasons. One, consumer behavior could increasingly shift to use Amazon as the default search engine for queries related to e-commerce purchase intent, rather than Google. And two, Amazon is investing in building its ad network off of Amazon as well, which could begin to encroach on AdSense.